A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
